Bob Peters Forecast

Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely in the area early next week as an upper air storm system crosses the region.

Thursday was another beautiful fall day in the area, with virtually clear skies, light winds, comfortable relative humidities and near normal temperatures. Today should be the same, though winds may be slightly stronger.

Low readings in the area Thursday morning were near Wednesday's, and from the high 40s to lower 50s. The actual temperature at a location was determined primarily by terrain: sites lower than the surrounding terrain had lower readings, while those higher had higher temperatures.

A good example is the Jacksonville airport, at an elevation of 676 feet higher than the surrounding terrain. On clear and calm cool season nights, that station often has the highest temperature in the region, which was the case Thursday morning with 57. The Union Pacific Railway station, 12 miles west and 361 feet lower, reported 47.

Afternoon highs were uniform in the 70s. Terrain at least what we have in East Texas -- does not matter so much during the daylight hours; both the city and airport stations reached 77.

Low readings should rise a degree or so daily through Sunday, with daytime highs remaining in the 70s through Sunday, with Sunday the coolest day because of increased clouds and the chance for rain.

The surface high pressure area, which has brought the mild and dry weather of the past week, was moving off to the east. Low pressure was beginning to deepen over West Texas.

This will bring increased southerly winds Friday and Saturday, with moisture return beginning Saturday.

An upper air low pressure disturbance will cross beginning Sunday night, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms then and Monday.

Areal coverage looks to run about 50 percent, with rainfall amounts of one-fourth to one-half inch.

After that disturbance crosses east of the region, it will take much of the middle atmospheric moisture along with it. However, enough low-level moisture should remain that when Tuesday's cold front shows up, there could still be some widely scattered showers.

The middle of next week should be dry and cooler.

Forecasters have been concerned about a rich plume of Gulf moisture, enhanced by Tropical Storm Ida. A heavy rain event is likely somewhere along the Gulf Coast next week; the best forecast would put this from the mouth of the Mississippi River eastward.

Tyler's highest sustaining wind Thursday was southerly at 10 mph, with a peak gust of 14 mph, and an average velocity of 1.8 mph. Wednesday's average velocity was 1.1 mph.

Thursday's average relative humidity was 68 percent, with similar values Friday and rising values Saturday and Sunday. Wednesday's average was 70 percent.