Bob Peters Forecast

Moderate to occasionally heavy rain from decaying Hurricane Gustav is still possible in the Tyler area, but general and flooding rains are not likely.

The early Tuesday morning analysis suggests that Gustav may not cause significant wind damage in the area, either.

In other words, the area can expect some rain, gusty winds, and few adverse effects.

Gustav came ashore at mid-morning Monday over Terrebonne Parish, and has weakened to a tropical depression.

Tyler has remained to the west of the storm's center. The initial forecast put the city on his east side. Rainfall amounts in East Texas through early this morning were one-third inch or less, with the exception of 1.26 inches at Hemphill.

Some stations in Louisiana east of the center have received torrential rains. Alexandria had measured 5.92 inches through 7:00 a.m. CDT today, New Iberia, La. 4.23 inches, Lafayette, La. 4.04 inches, Biloxi, Miss. 3.73 inches, and Monroe 3.53 inches. Grand Isle, La., on the coast in Jefferson Parish just east of where Gustav came ashore, received 14.76 inches and winds of 105 mph.

Through 10 a.m. CDT today, Longview has received 0.48 inch, while only 0.10 inch
has fallen at Pounds Field. The National Weather Service in Shreveport is continuing a wind advisory through 7 p.m. CDT today east of a Paris-Centerville line. The flash flood watch continues east of a Clarksville-Carthage line through 7 p.m. CDT today, but it is discontinued west to a Paris-Centerville line. Tyler is removed from the watch.

The tropical storm wind warning has been cancelled.

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth is continuing a flash flood watch from 7 p.m. CDT Tuesday through 6 p.m. CDT Wednesday west of a Paris-Centerville line and east of the IH-35 Corridor. This one may also be cancelled later today.

Tyler is included in the wind advisory. The period of strong winds should end by late-evening today, with mostly light rainfall, though a few scattered occurrences of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible into Wednesday afternoon.

Winds in East Texas at mid-morning were northerly to northwesterly at 15-25 mph with gusts in excess of 30 mph.

At 10 a.m. CDT Tuesday, now Tropical Depression Gustav contained maximum
sustained winds of 25 mph, was moving north-northwestward at 8 mph, and was 15 miles east-southeast of Shreveport and 100 miles due east of Tyler.

He will move northwestward and then turn northward, slowing further and continuing to weaken.

By noon Tuesday, he should be centered about 90 miles east-northeast of Tyler, with peak winds of about 25 mph classified as a minimal tropical depression.

By midnight Tuesday/Wednesday, he should be centered about 80 miles northeast of Tyler, with peak winds of 20 mph remnant low pressure area.

By noon Wednesday, he should be centered about 90 miles north of Tyler, with peak
winds of 20 mph a remnant low pressure area.

By midnight Wednesday Thursday, his center should be about 130 miles north of Tyler, with peak winds of 25 mph.

Midnight Thursday/Friday should find the remnant low pressure centered about 190 miles northeast of Tyler.

The remnant low should dissipate by midnight Saturday/Sunday.

Winds are increasing across the region. A weak rain band moved through the region late Monday night, and another and stronger one is probable later today.

Rainfall amounts outside the flood watches should be between 1 and 2 inches. Within the watches, amounts could run 3 to 6 inches over the eastern watch, and 2 to 4 inches in the western watch.

Wind velocities should run in the 20-30 mph range today with a few higher gusts, then decrease to 15-25 mph overnight tonight, and back into the northwest and west tomorrow while continuing to diminish. Winds should be light by tomorrow evening.

Updated Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2008 at 10:55 a.m. CDT

(TylerPaper.com radar)