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Complete Forecast for  Aug 07 2008

They call it the "Wild, Wild West."

Three words describing not just the shootout happening mostly to the left of the Mississippi River, but the conference seemingly up for grabs, although in reality a three-horse race.

The NBA's Western Conference, home to nine teams with winning percentages of .600 or better through Friday night, may not be as tough to figure out as most think.

Regarding the league's superior side, the more things change, the more they really stay the same. In this case, the players change, but the road to NBA finals out west usually goes down one highway in particular.

THE ROAD LESS TAKEN

True, a valid question looms as to who is best out west. After all, no fewer than five different teams have taken turns sitting atop the conference in the past three months - the Los Angeles Lakers, Houston, New Orleans, San Antonio and Phoenix.

In search of a clear-cut favorite? With apologies to the rest of the West, look no further, the answer is right there in the books - the history books.

What appears a tough equation - with only 2 1/2 games separating the top seven teams entering Saturday - really isn't. It's simple mathematics.

Take the top eight - with Utah, Dallas and Golden State rounding out the list - subtract five and you get a true version of the big three. Not big three as in Magic Johnson-Kareem Abdul Jabbar-James Worthy of 1980s Lakers fame; the Hakeem Olajuwon-Clyde Drexler-Robert Horry Houston Rockets trio of 1990s glory; or the Tim Duncan-Manu Ginobili-Tony Parker triple threat of the new millennium San Antonio dynasty.

Instead, you find a trio of teams right at the front of the pack - the Lakers and Rockets both with 45 wins and the Spurs one game off the conference past with 44 - entering Sunday. THE BIG THREE

Simply put, one of those three stand the best chance to represent the conference come June. Need convincing? Aside from the Lakers, Rockets or Spurs, no other Western Conference team has won a single NBA title over the last three decades. The three own all 14 championships won by the West dating back to 1980.

Over the past two weeks, one of the three has been atop a conference that can't afford any nights off. San Antonio slid from first to fifth after three road losses - although the league's most seasoned team only trails the Lakers and Rockets by 1 1/2 games entering Sunday.

Los Angeles, although an impressive 16-4 in its last 20 games since acquiring center Pau Gasol, finds itself deadlocked with Houston after falling to New Orleans on Friday. The Lakers lost their second seven-footer in barely a two-month span when Gasol went down with an injured ankle Friday and joined promising 20-year old Andrew Bynum on the sidelines.

Houston, on a 21-game winning streak, pulled into a tie at 45-20 with Los Angeles with its latest triumph Friday over Charlotte. The teams meet in a showdown Sunday at the Toyota Center.

The winner gets to be alone on top, maybe for a day, possibly a little longer.

But if past history means anything, the road to the NBA Finals will go through not one town, but any one of the three.

BACK TO THE FUTURE

The Lakers now sport a lineup comparable to their Showtime days - a megastar in the backcourt like Magic (Kobe Bryant); not one but two talented big men (Bynum, Gasol); and a versatile, complimentary forward ala Worthy (Lamar Odom). LA ranks third in the league in scoring offense (108.1) and third in assists per game (23.9).

San Antonio looks basically the same as last year's championship edition - arguably better with key additions like Damon Stoudamire and Kurt Thomas - that won its third title this decade. The Spurs still sport one of the league's best threesomes, one of only five in the league with three players putting up 18 points or more per game.

Houston differs from the past champions, but remains a defensive-minded team built around a shot-blocking center like Olajuwon (Yao Ming, Dikembe Mutombo) and a perennial all-star in the backcourt reminiscent of Drexler (Tracy McGrady). Houston leads the league in rebounding differential, and ranks second in opponent field goal percentage (.429).

So while looking for a favorite in the Western Conference, don't look too far. It's a good chance the one who wins will be located off Interstate 10.

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Western Conference Champions Since 1980

L.A. Lakers 1980*, 1982, 1983*, 1984, 1985*, 1987*, 1988*, 1991, 2000*, 2001*, 2002*, 2004

Houston 1981, 1986, 1994*, 1995*

San Antonio 1999*, 2003*, 2005*, 2007*

Blazers 1990, 1992

Jazz 1997, 1998

Sonics 1996

Mavericks 2006

* - Won NBA title