Cold Front To Bring Heavy Rain
Rather exciting weather may be in store for the area overnight and Monday.
A strong cold front with an upper air trough and favorable lower-level dynamics should cross the region during the pre-dawn hours of Monday. The result will likely be heavy rainfall, and a slight risk for severe thunderstorms.
Rainfall is expected to run in the 2.0 to 4.0 inch range, with near 100 percent areal coverage. Rainfall rates of 2.0 inches per hour or greater would likely produce localized flooding.
Large hail would be the most likely form any severe weather would take. If all of that isn't enough, there could be a rain/sleet mix north of the IH-20 Corridor Monday evening. With a wet ground and temperatures still above freezing, no accumulation is expected.
An isolated strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for Sunday afternoon, though these should be generally along and west of the IH-35 Corridor.
A leading upper air disturbance, associated with the Monday storm, should be crossing Texas at that time. It could develop thunderstorms, which would come during the period of maximum daytime heating. With no surface boundary to focus the activity, severe is not likely then.
Temperatures on Saturday ran near Friday's levels, and were about 10 degrees above normal. Similar temperatures are forecast for Sunday, with a 15-degree drop in average temperatures forecast for Monday.
Low readings Saturday morning were from the high 30s in the north to the high 50s in the south. Low temperatures Sunday morning should run a few degrees higher than Saturday's, with Monday morning low readings running up to 10 degrees below Sunday's, and temperatures falling during the day.
Afternoon high temperatures Saturday were in the 70s, with slightly lower readings forecast for Sunday because of increased clouds and wind. Monday's high temperatures should be about 25 degrees below Sunday's, with maximum temperatures reached during the early- morning.
Saturday's winds were southerly at 5-15 mph, after having been light and variable overnight. Winds should increase Sunday and Sunday night to wind advisory criteria, and shift into the northwest behind the cold front and remain strong until early Tuesday.
Saturday's average relative humidity was 75 percent, with higher values likely both Sunday and Monday.
Tyler's high temperature of 79 came at 3:27 p.m. following the morning's low of 54 at 4:12 a.m.
The station pressure stood at 1018.2 millibars at 6 p.m. Saturday. This compares with 1022.5 millibars 24 hours earlier.
The cold front should lower temperatures to below normal levels, where they will likely remain through next weekend.
Another storm system, much weaker than the early-week one, should cross Wednesday night and Thursday. This will bring another chance for showers and reinforce the cold air mass. Rainfall with the mid-week storm should run around 0.5 inch on average, and severe weather does not appear to be a threat.
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