Candidates Need To Beware Until Primaries
Roy Maynard
In just a few days, the voting begins. The Iowa Caucuses, set for Thursday, Jan. 3, mark the beginning of the process of picking our next president.
In June, I wrote a primer in this space on straw polls, caucuses and primaries. I'd like hit the high points again - with the help of the three little pigs.
You know the story - the first pig builds a house of straw, the second builds a house of sticks and the third builds a modest brick home that is subsequently appraised for twice what the poor little piggy thought it should be.
These houses roughly correspond with straw polls, caucuses and primaries.
Early in the primary process, presidential candidates are roaming around the countryside just like those little pigs. They're all seeking shelter, in the form of confirmation that voters like them. But in the end, they'll need real bricks - convention delegates, who are won in the later primary elections.
Straw polls are named for straws in the wind - they show direction. But they're also like straw houses. They're simply not that reliable.
Traditionally, candidates have sought to do well in these early ballots. Success can mean more credibility and more contributions. Not anymore - at least not this time around.
Texas held its first Republican straw poll on Sept. 1. The winner was Duncan Hunter, a California congressman who has never made it out of the third tier of Republican candidates. Fred Thompson and Rep. Ron Paul came in second and third, respectively. No frontrunners placed, or even attended the event.
The straw polls are over now. It's on to the caucuses and primaries.
Caucuses are a little sturdier than straw polls, in terms of political significance. But they're still unsteady, like a house of sticks.
The Iowa caucuses can be important. For example, the Iowa Democratic caucus revived John Kerry's campaign in 2004.
What the Iowa caucuses really do is measure momentum, which translates into more press coverage, more money an,d often, a second and closer look from the voters.
But a poor showing in the Iowa caucus isn't necessarily fatal to a campaign. George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan have both emerged from disappointing caucus showings to win the nominations.
But the votes that really count are the ones taken in primaries, because that's where delegates are won, and delegates determine who gets the party's nomination.
The first primary is traditionally New Hampshire, and this year is no exception. It's set for Jan. 8, five days after the Iowa caucuses.
Some big primaries follow soon after: Michigan on Jan. 15, South Carolina on Jan. 19 (for the Republicans, the Dems don't vote until Jan. 26), and Florida on Jan. 29.
So-called "Super Duper Tuesday," Feb. 5, will see primaries in delegate-rich states such as California, New York, Missouri and Illinois. By the time Texans vote on March 4, each party's frontrunners will likely have won enough delegates to have wrapped up the nomination.
Early Returns is the political observations column of staff writer Roy Maynard, who can be reached at 903-596-6291 or at roymaynardtmt@gmail.com.
In June, I wrote a primer in this space on straw polls, caucuses and primaries. I'd like hit the high points again - with the help of the three little pigs.
You know the story - the first pig builds a house of straw, the second builds a house of sticks and the third builds a modest brick home that is subsequently appraised for twice what the poor little piggy thought it should be.
These houses roughly correspond with straw polls, caucuses and primaries.
Early in the primary process, presidential candidates are roaming around the countryside just like those little pigs. They're all seeking shelter, in the form of confirmation that voters like them. But in the end, they'll need real bricks - convention delegates, who are won in the later primary elections.
Straw polls are named for straws in the wind - they show direction. But they're also like straw houses. They're simply not that reliable.
Traditionally, candidates have sought to do well in these early ballots. Success can mean more credibility and more contributions. Not anymore - at least not this time around.
Texas held its first Republican straw poll on Sept. 1. The winner was Duncan Hunter, a California congressman who has never made it out of the third tier of Republican candidates. Fred Thompson and Rep. Ron Paul came in second and third, respectively. No frontrunners placed, or even attended the event.
The straw polls are over now. It's on to the caucuses and primaries.
Caucuses are a little sturdier than straw polls, in terms of political significance. But they're still unsteady, like a house of sticks.
The Iowa caucuses can be important. For example, the Iowa Democratic caucus revived John Kerry's campaign in 2004.
What the Iowa caucuses really do is measure momentum, which translates into more press coverage, more money an,d often, a second and closer look from the voters.
But a poor showing in the Iowa caucus isn't necessarily fatal to a campaign. George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan have both emerged from disappointing caucus showings to win the nominations.
But the votes that really count are the ones taken in primaries, because that's where delegates are won, and delegates determine who gets the party's nomination.
The first primary is traditionally New Hampshire, and this year is no exception. It's set for Jan. 8, five days after the Iowa caucuses.
Some big primaries follow soon after: Michigan on Jan. 15, South Carolina on Jan. 19 (for the Republicans, the Dems don't vote until Jan. 26), and Florida on Jan. 29.
So-called "Super Duper Tuesday," Feb. 5, will see primaries in delegate-rich states such as California, New York, Missouri and Illinois. By the time Texans vote on March 4, each party's frontrunners will likely have won enough delegates to have wrapped up the nomination.
Early Returns is the political observations column of staff writer Roy Maynard, who can be reached at 903-596-6291 or at roymaynardtmt@gmail.com.
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