Playing Political Numbers Game
Ray Maynard
Numbers only win arguments when it's an election.
That's a principle I re-examined this week following a crowded public hearing on some controversial aspects of the Smith County budget Monday night.
The day after the meeting, a reader criticized my coverage. Her contention was that one side (those against raises for the commissioners court) far outnumbered the other side (those for the raises), but that my article didn't reflect this. Therefore, my article was misleading and biased.
I don't mind a little criticism, and her letter had the added advantage of making me think about how I do my job.
But after some re-examination, I believe I would cover that meeting in the same way.
Here's why.
First, like most political events, that public hearing was highly orchestrated.
The Smith County Republican Party fired up its auto-dialer and, in the words of one member who received a call, "robo-called" people to drum up attendance.
There's nothing wrong with that.
The Smith County Employees Association also turned out in good numbers; I am sure that involved some phone calls, too.
In both cases, efforts were made to bulk up the numbers in order to demonstrate strength.
That's how political events work - and as contentious as this budget process has become, there's no doubt the public hearing was a political event.
When an event is as carefully orchestrated as that hearing, you can't consider attendance a true reflection of public sentiment. If 58 people show up to support one side, and 42 show up to support the other, it's tempting to conclude the public at large reflects those numbers. But it would be wrong to draw such a conclusion. All it really means is that one side worked a little harder to get its members out that night.
If the Republican Party had not marshaled its members, or if the many county employees sitting in the audience Monday had felt more talkative, would that have meant the public is in favor of those raises?
I'm sure my reader would disagree with that conclusion.
Second, I feel my duty in coverage of such events is to give both sides their say.
Again, the public hearing was a political event. I had no intention to cover it as a stenographer would. That would have been easy; I could have tossed in a couple of lines from everyone who got up to speak, in the order in which they spoke.
But the result would have been an unorganized, unreadable mess. And readers wouldn't know any more about the issue than they knew before they tried to read it.
The better way to cover such a meeting is to pick the three biggest issues, and then pick the two best speakers to present each side of those issues.
And that's what I did. Speakers such as Rita Turner, David Stein, Kay Davenport and Russell Buffington made their arguments clearly and succinctly. I could serve their arguments best by standing aside, editorially speaking, and letting those folks make them.
Finally, numbers are important in politics - but only in elections. Prior to Election Day, numbers can be misleading.
Remember Howard Dean? He certainly had numbers behind him - in his rallies and campaign appearances. He boasted hundreds of thousands of supporters and millions of hits on his Web site.
But Dean was never a truly viable candidate, and even before he melted down in Iowa during the 2004 primary, his support was shown to be enthusiastic - but hollow.
The "Deany Boppers," young people who showed up at his rallies, weren't as faithful in showing up at the polls. Web site hits never translated into reliable funding.
Dean's candidacy is a good example of how numbers can mislead. Dean himself was frustrated that the media had spent so much time focusing on his numbers, rather than his ideas.
That's a mistake I prefer to avoid.
Numbers don't win arguments any more than volume wins arguments. My approach to political reporting will remain focused on those arguments, instead of the numbers - at least until Election Day.
Early Returns is the political observations column of staff writer Roy Maynard. He can be reached at 903-596-6291 or roymaynardtmt@gmail.com
That's a principle I re-examined this week following a crowded public hearing on some controversial aspects of the Smith County budget Monday night.
The day after the meeting, a reader criticized my coverage. Her contention was that one side (those against raises for the commissioners court) far outnumbered the other side (those for the raises), but that my article didn't reflect this. Therefore, my article was misleading and biased.
I don't mind a little criticism, and her letter had the added advantage of making me think about how I do my job.
But after some re-examination, I believe I would cover that meeting in the same way.
Here's why.
First, like most political events, that public hearing was highly orchestrated.
The Smith County Republican Party fired up its auto-dialer and, in the words of one member who received a call, "robo-called" people to drum up attendance.
There's nothing wrong with that.
The Smith County Employees Association also turned out in good numbers; I am sure that involved some phone calls, too.
In both cases, efforts were made to bulk up the numbers in order to demonstrate strength.
That's how political events work - and as contentious as this budget process has become, there's no doubt the public hearing was a political event.
When an event is as carefully orchestrated as that hearing, you can't consider attendance a true reflection of public sentiment. If 58 people show up to support one side, and 42 show up to support the other, it's tempting to conclude the public at large reflects those numbers. But it would be wrong to draw such a conclusion. All it really means is that one side worked a little harder to get its members out that night.
If the Republican Party had not marshaled its members, or if the many county employees sitting in the audience Monday had felt more talkative, would that have meant the public is in favor of those raises?
I'm sure my reader would disagree with that conclusion.
Second, I feel my duty in coverage of such events is to give both sides their say.
Again, the public hearing was a political event. I had no intention to cover it as a stenographer would. That would have been easy; I could have tossed in a couple of lines from everyone who got up to speak, in the order in which they spoke.
But the result would have been an unorganized, unreadable mess. And readers wouldn't know any more about the issue than they knew before they tried to read it.
The better way to cover such a meeting is to pick the three biggest issues, and then pick the two best speakers to present each side of those issues.
And that's what I did. Speakers such as Rita Turner, David Stein, Kay Davenport and Russell Buffington made their arguments clearly and succinctly. I could serve their arguments best by standing aside, editorially speaking, and letting those folks make them.
Finally, numbers are important in politics - but only in elections. Prior to Election Day, numbers can be misleading.
Remember Howard Dean? He certainly had numbers behind him - in his rallies and campaign appearances. He boasted hundreds of thousands of supporters and millions of hits on his Web site.
But Dean was never a truly viable candidate, and even before he melted down in Iowa during the 2004 primary, his support was shown to be enthusiastic - but hollow.
The "Deany Boppers," young people who showed up at his rallies, weren't as faithful in showing up at the polls. Web site hits never translated into reliable funding.
Dean's candidacy is a good example of how numbers can mislead. Dean himself was frustrated that the media had spent so much time focusing on his numbers, rather than his ideas.
That's a mistake I prefer to avoid.
Numbers don't win arguments any more than volume wins arguments. My approach to political reporting will remain focused on those arguments, instead of the numbers - at least until Election Day.
Early Returns is the political observations column of staff writer Roy Maynard. He can be reached at 903-596-6291 or roymaynardtmt@gmail.com
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